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Bank of America says do not sell in May and go away
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors should ignore the adage about selling off equities in May as a big preelection summer rally could be coming, according to Bank of America. "Do not sell in May and go away," Stephen Suttmeier, the firm's technical research strategist, told clients in a Tuesday note. He pointed to the fact that June through August has been the second strongest three-month stretch for the S & P 500 for all years since 1928. In those three months alone, the broad market index has gained 65% of the time with an average return of 3.2%, according to Bank of America data. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And there's a key factor Suttmeier sees changing the narrative for the better this year: the presidential election.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, It's, Jerome Powell, Suttmeier, Williams Organizations: Bank of America, Dow Jones, Federal
A Plan to Remake the Middle East
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Michael Barbaro | Michael Crowley | Nina Feldman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
If and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a cease-fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East. Michael Crowley, who covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times, explains why those involved in this plan believe they have so little time left to get it done.
Persons: Michael Crowley Organizations: Hamas, State Department, The Times Locations: Israel, United States, Gaza
John Paul Brammer writes the “¡Hola Papi!” advice column for The Cut at New York magazine, answering questions like, “Why am I dreaming about sex with a man when I’m a lesbian?” Or, “What if my partner judges me for writing smut?” This candor has given John Paul an intimate connection with his readers. However, as today’s episode reveals, he doesn’t think we necessarily need that level of openness with all of our loved ones. Ahead of Mother’s Day, Brammer reads an essay about a recent college graduate who sets out to spend the summer exploring his sexuality, but whose plans are derailed by his duty to his grandmother. It’s called “Young, Gay and Single Among the Nuns and Widows” by Kevin Hershey. Brammer says it’s “bizarre” how much this essay resonates with his own life.
Persons: John Paul Brammer, John Paul, Brammer, It’s, Young, Gay, Kevin Hershey Organizations: New York, Nuns
There's a growing risk of a stock market melt-up, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni said the return of the "Fed Put" means stocks could soar on the anticipation and realization of interest rate cuts. But stock market melt-ups are rarely sustainable and are often followed by a painful decline. With it comes increased risk of a stock market meltup," Yardeni said. For investors, the question is whether or not a potential stock market melt-up and subsequent decline will happen at prices a lot higher or lower from current levels.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, , Jerome Powell, Yardeni's Organizations: Service, Federal, Wall Street
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 1 basis point at 4.479%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher Wednesday as investors weighed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve officials, looking for clues on the path ahead for interest rates. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed was unlikely to hike rates at its next meeting. More comments from Fed officials are expected throughout the week, which investors will be scanning for hints about the monetary policy outlook.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Richmond Fed
But for the [utilities] to rally this long, sorry, it is flashing red for the economy, telling us we're headed into the shoals of a slowdown." The average is made up of 15 major utilities stocks and has been climbing since April 16, finishing Wednesday up 0.54%. These stocks do well in a slowdown because they are not discretionary—consumers must pay their utilities bills, he said. Cramer reaffirmed his stance that signs of a slowing economy have been cropping up over the last several weeks, and this rise in utilities only furthers that theory. "At the end of the day, the [utilities], they never lie," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, we're, Cramer, Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell, he's Organizations: Dow
This year the rate markets have come back to a more sensible reality after flirting with the la-la land of 7 cuts. And all the while, the more sensible equity markets have paid only fleeting attention to their rate brother's whining. As a guy who was brought up in the fixed income and currency markets, I'm increasingly finding more sensibility in the equity markets as I head into later stages of my career. Having five-year inflation expectations (as measured by the 5-year breakeven inflation rate) never ramp higher while cumulative inflation surged around 20% since January 2021 is a testament to his stalwart success. There have been no fumbles at the Fed so far during a protracted fight to ensure anchored inflation expectations and long term price stability.
Persons: Consensonomics, Jerome Powell's, Jay, Janet Yellen's, Janet, Stanley Druckenmiller, I'm, David Zervos Organizations: Equity
Opinion | Iran and Israel Weren’t Always Enemies
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Karim Sadjadpour | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
“History is littered,” the British writer and politician Enoch Powell said, “with the wars which everybody knew would never happen.”A full-blown conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel once seemed implausible. Iran and Israel are not natural adversaries. In contrast to other modern conflicts — between Israel and Palestine, Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan — Iran and Israel have no bilateral land or resource disputes. Their national strengths — Iran is an energy titan and Israel is a tech innovator — are more complementary than competitive. Iran was the second Muslim nation, after Turkey, to recognize Israel after its founding in 1948.
Persons: Enoch Powell, specter, King Cyrus the Great Locations: Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, United States, Iran, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Turkey
Reckless government spending enabled by the Federal Reserve is hurting average Americans and endangering President Joe Biden's re-election chances, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said Tuesday. Everybody seems to get it but Yellen, who just keeps spending and spending," Druckenmiller said. Druckenmiller's comments come with the Fed still trying to bring inflation down, as policymakers have dashed investors' hopes for aggressive interest rate cuts this year. Getting markets enthused about rate reductions was a mistake because it set financial conditions "on fire," he said. Inflation was coming down, financial conditions were tightening," he said.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Stanley Druckenmiller, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Druckenmiller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Duquesne Family Office, Fed
"These numbers on abortion have gigantic implications for just about every large company in America," said Cyrus Beschloss, the CEO of The Generation Lab. The CNBC/Generation Lab survey was conducted between April 26 and May 2, and has a margin of error +/- 3.1%. Sour on the economyThe survey also found that respondents had a negative opinion of an economy many would consider robust. The survey showed that 54% of respondents feel inflation impacts them the most in "the cost of food." Offered two options of how the government should proceed with TikTok, a large majority — 70% — of survey respondents said it should "allow TikTok to keep operating as usual."
Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Cyrus Beschloss, they're, Roe, Wade, Jerome Powell, Powell, Delano Saporu, Saporu, Joe Biden, Steve Cohen, workweek, Kennedy, Biden, Donald Trump, Daniel Steinle Organizations: Emory University, AFP, Getty, CNBC, U.S, Federal Reserve, New Street Advisors, Congress, New York Mets, Biden, Trump, Bloomberg Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, USA, America, Washington, U.S, Waukesha, Waukesha , Wisconsin
A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.
Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials
Markets started were revived last week as the April jobs report renewed hopes of rate cuts. Investors will tune in to Fed speakers this week for further clues about Fed policy. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Morning gains stretched the stock rally into its fourth day, a move up first sparked by Friday's jobs report. A lineup of Fed speakers this week could potentially deepen this notion or, otherwise signal that markets are turning too optimistic.
Persons: Stocks, , David Morrison, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trade Nation, Fed, Minneapolis, Chicago
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.22% last week, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.47% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a three-basis-point increase from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Freddie Mac Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Reserve, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Chevron
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer's, Stanley Black, Decker, Cramer, Jim, That's, there's, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, We've, we'll Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Logitech, After West Texas, Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Susquehanna, Disney, Developers, Apple, Wynn Resorts, Arista Networks, Rivian, Occidental Petroleum, Bros, Reddit, Emerson Electric, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: FirstSource, After, Macao, Las Vegas, Occidental, Lyft
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will have 'a lot higher threshold for pain' in its inflation fight: SoFi's Liz YoungLiz Young, SoFi head of investment strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, Fed Chair Powell's commentary and the impact on markets, interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: SoFi's Liz Young Liz Young
Bryn Colton/Getty ImagesIn February, the Met revealed Ballard’s “The Garden of Time” as the theme for tonight's red carpet. In the “Garden of Time,” Count Axel and his wife live in a grand villa with a sprawling walled estate. A crystalline meadow of glass-like “time flowers” spring out across the plot, while over the horizon, a whip-yielding angry mob inches closer and closer. Even if you don’t recognize his name, you are likely to have come across Ballard’s unnerving musings on human psychology. But it’s not just film — Ballard's worldview has infiltrated art, music, architecture and fashion, perhaps more consistently than any other 20th-century author.
Persons: Ballard, Bryn Colton, Ballard’s, Count Axel, Axel, , Steven Spielberg’s, David Cronenberg’s, it’s Locations: Shepperton , England, British, France
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stock gains continue: The market is higher on Monday, extending its gains over the past three sessions to nearly 3%. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, overbought, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Mellody Hobson, Howard Schultz, Laxman Narasimhan, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Lilly, Christian Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Starbucks, Worldwide Developers Conference, VisionPro, Nvidia, pharma, FDA, Simon Property Group, Club, Rockwell Automation, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Apple, Getty Locations: WWDC, Hamburg, Germany
As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tries to get on the presidential ballot in all 50 states, he’s confronting fierce resistance from his opponents. Rebecca Davis O’Brien, who covers campaign finance and money in U.S. elections for The New York Times, discusses the high-stakes battle playing out behind the scenes.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Rebecca Davis O’Brien Organizations: The New York Times
The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates twice this year, while the yen was a tad weaker to start the week. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates twice this year, while the yen was a tad weaker to start the week. On Monday, the yen weakened 0.43% to 153.62 per dollar in early trading, having touched a three-week high of 151.86 on Friday, as the dollar lost additional ground after the jobs data. But with Japanese authorities choosing last week's quiet periods to intervene in the yen market, traders will be on high alert through the day. Markets are now pricing in 45 basis points of cuts this year, with a rate cut in November fully priced in.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of, Fed, Citi Locations: Japan, Britain, Bank of Japan, U.S
5 things to know before the stock market Monday, May 6
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Michele Luhn | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Feeling optimisticStock futures were higher Monday after ending last week on a positive note in light of a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq rose 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively, while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. Buffett's back, all rightWarren Buffett speaks during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 4, 2024. During the meeting, Buffett also fielded questions from shareholders, opined on the future of artificial intelligence and praised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his work steering the economy. Final verdictCombination showing Former FTX CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried (L) and Zhao Changpeng (R), founder and chief executive officer of Binance.
Persons: Joseph Prezioso, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Jerome Powell, Sam Bankman, Zhao Changpeng, Mike Segar, Benjamin Girette, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Traders, Federal Reserve, Disney, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Berkshire, CNBC, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway's, Paramount, Reuters, Bloomberg Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, San Rafael , California
Arone spoke with Before the Bell to outline three things about markets right now “that investors should know, but probably don’t.”1. You write that investors might be surprised to hear that small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks over the past five months. Why do you think that’s surprising, and what does it say about markets? Most investors think that the S&P 500 has been outperforming everything else, largely dragged up by the performance of the Magnificent 7 (Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia). The big beneficiaries of that, I think, would be a surprise for most investors — those mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks.
Persons: , Michael Arone, Arone, That’s, that’s, Jerome Powell, I’m, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Munger’s, Read, Parija Kavilanz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bell, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Treasury, Fed, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Ikea Locations: New York, Berkshire, Woodstock, Nebraska, Omaha
In today's big story, we're looking at people who feel like a middle-class salary doesn't equal a middle-class lifestyle . The big storyMiddle-class meltdownMichael Raines"Lately, I'm getting the feeling that I came in at the end. AdvertisementBusiness Insider's Jennifer Sor has a report on the people making over six figures who think the middle-class lifestyle they dreamed of isn't realistic for their salary . AdvertisementMarco Bottigelli/Getty, Yevgen Romanenko/Getty, Maskot/Getty, Tyler Le/BILet's address the elephant in the room: A six-figure salary is still a lot of money. Words like "AI Infrastructure" and "generative AI" point to more money heading to Nvidia for its popular H100 GPU chip.
Persons: , Michael Raines, I'm, It's, Tony Soprano bemoaned, Jennifer Sor, Vincent, it's, Marco Bottigelli, Yevgen Romanenko, Tyler Le, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Shruti Gandhi, Dalton Caldwell, James Cham, Hemant Taneja, Jenny Lefcourt, Nick Little, Sam Altman, Alice Zhang, Serena Williams, Jack Dorsey, Dorsey, — Dorsey, Bluesky, Alyssa Powell, Katie Notopoulos, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Pew Research Center, nab, Adobe, Wall, Hamptons, Nvidia, Genomics, Serena Ventures, Fortune, Starbucks Locations: New York, Zillow, Santa Barbara , California, Berkshire, Bluesky, London, Chicago
The latest macro data is sending mixed signals, reflecting both a "no landing" and a "soft landing," Morgan Stanley said. The bank recommends defensive sectors, including consumer staples, to navigate volatility. AdvertisementInvestors should ramp up investments in defensive stock sectors like consumer staples and utilities as the latest data sends mixed signals about the economy, Morgan Stanley says. Based on this rationale, Wilson suggests opting for robust cyclical names in a no-landing scenario and premium growth stocks in a soft landing. It also provides some more defensiveness to portfolios as a hedge amid uncertain/unpredictable macro data," they said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Michael Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm, Staples, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Conference, Reserve Locations: today's
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . On the agenda:But first: Why Wall Street is so happy to see the job market slowing down. New data from Vanguard shows a two-tier job market: one divided between a blue-collar boom and a white-collar recession. Also read:AdvertisementiStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe portfolio-manager whisperersThe new power figures in hedge funds do not manage money.
Persons: , it's, Brian Rose, It's, Christie Hemm, Jan Sramek, Goldman Sachs, Reid Hoffman, Marc Andreessen, Alyssa Powell, Stefano Spicca, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Rebecca Zisser, whisperers, Gates Organizations: Business, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Big, Silicon, California, Vanguard, Microsoft, Big Tech Locations: Austrian, Solano County, Napa, Sacramento, California, Silicon Valley, New York City
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